Nottingham Forest
Game ended in draw.
1 - 1
FT
Newcastle United
Postmatch editorial
The pre-match tension never quite broke
The final score was Nottingham Forest 1-1 Newcastle United. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.
The late equaliser came from Elliot Anderson 88', which kept the game level at the finish.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Nottingham Forest led Corners 2-1, even though the scoreboard went another way. Newcastle United also shaded Possession 46%-54%.
Before kickoff, our model made Nottingham Forest the likeliest result at 44.6%, while the median bookmaker line priced Newcastle United at 45.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (58.4%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on 2 at 10bet. The market was offering 2.55 against a fair line of 2.43. That translated to an edge of 4.9% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Model result
Nottingham Forest
44.6%
Market result
Newcastle United
45.5%
BTTS
Yes
58.4%
Key stats
Match numbers
Corners
Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest
Newcastle United
2
1
Possession
Newcastle UnitedNottingham Forest
Newcastle United
46%
54%
Total shots
Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest
Newcastle United
17
16
Model edge
2
10bet
Market odd
2.55
Fair odd
2.43
Edge
4.9%
Stake
0.73u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.