Nottingham Forest
Liverpool won after full-time.
0 - 1
FT
Liverpool
Postmatch editorial
Liverpool turned the pre-match edge into points
The final score was Nottingham Forest 0-1 Liverpool. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
The decisive turn arrived late when Alexis Mac Allister scored 90+7' for Liverpool.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Liverpool led Shots on target 2-4. Nottingham Forest also shaded Corners 7-2.
Before kickoff, our model made Liverpool the likeliest result at 49.6%, while the median bookmaker line priced Liverpool at 52.9% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (51.1%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Cloudbet. The market was offering 1.99 against a fair line of 1.92. That translated to an edge of 3.6% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
Liverpool
49.6%
Market result
Liverpool
52.9%
BTTS
Yes
51.1%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
LiverpoolNottingham Forest
Liverpool
2
4
Corners
Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest
Liverpool
7
2
Total shots
Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest
Liverpool
18
10
Model edge
2
Cloudbet
Market odd
1.99
Fair odd
1.92
Edge
3.6%
Stake
0.90u
That ticket matched the final outcome.