Postmatch editorial
One side of the split call landed for Everton
The final score was Nottingham Forest 0-2 Everton. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
The decisive turn arrived late when Thierno Barry scored 79' for Everton.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Nottingham Forest led Shots on target 6-3, even though the scoreboard went another way. Nottingham Forest also shaded Corners 9-2.
Before kickoff, our model made Nottingham Forest the likeliest result at 41.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced Nottingham Forest at 52.1% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (53.0%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Marathon. The market was offering 2.15 against a fair line of 2.07. That translated to an edge of 3.9% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Model result
Nottingham Forest
41.0%
Market result
Nottingham Forest
52.1%
BTTS
Yes
53.0%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest
Everton
6
3
Corners
Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest
Everton
9
2
Possession
Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest
Everton
70%
30%
Model edge
1
Marathon
Market odd
2.15
Fair odd
2.07
Edge
3.9%
Stake
0.85u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.