Nottingham Forest
Game ended in draw.
1 - 1
FT
Aston Villa
Postmatch editorial
The pre-match tension never quite broke
The final score was Nottingham Forest 1-1 Aston Villa. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.
Murillo put the first mark on the match 23', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Nottingham Forest led Corners 7-3, even though the scoreboard went another way. Aston Villa also shaded Possession 41%-59%.
Before kickoff, our model made Aston Villa the likeliest result at 38.9%, while the median bookmaker line priced Nottingham Forest at 42.3% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (58.2%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Aston Villa
38.9%
Market result
Nottingham Forest
42.3%
BTTS
Yes
58.2%
Key stats
Match numbers
Corners
Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest
Aston Villa
7
3
Possession
Aston VillaNottingham Forest
Aston Villa
41%
59%
Shots on target
Aston VillaNottingham Forest
Aston Villa
4
5
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.