Postmatch editorial

Norway turned the pre-match edge into points

The final score was Norway 11-1 Moldova. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

The decisive turn arrived late when Thelo Aasgaard scored 90+1' for Norway.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Norway led Shots on target 17-0. Norway also shaded Total shots 34-2.

Before kickoff, our model made Norway the likeliest result at 75.9%, while the median bookmaker line priced Norway at 95.2% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (63.3%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Marathonbet. The market was offering 1.10 against a fair line of 1.09. That translated to an edge of 0.9% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Norway

75.9%

Hit

Market result

Norway

95.2%

Hit

BTTS

No

63.3%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Norway

Norway

Moldova

17

0

Total shots

Norway

Norway

Moldova

34

2

Possession

Norway

Norway

Moldova

71%

29%

Model edge

1

Marathonbet

Market odd

1.10

Fair odd

1.09

Edge

0.9%

Stake

3.99u

That ticket matched the final outcome.