Postmatch editorial

Northern Ireland turned the pre-match edge into points

The final score was Northern Ireland 2-0 Slovakia. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

The decisive turn arrived late when Trai Hume scored 81' for Northern Ireland.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Northern Ireland led Shots on target 4-2. Northern Ireland also shaded Total shots 11-7.

Before kickoff, our model made Northern Ireland the likeliest result at 41.7%, while the median bookmaker line priced Northern Ireland at 41.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (53.8%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Betsson. The market was offering 2.72 against a fair line of 2.59. That translated to an edge of 5.0% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Northern Ireland

41.7%

Hit

Market result

Northern Ireland

41.5%

Hit

BTTS

No

53.8%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Northern Ireland

Northern Ireland

Slovakia

4

2

Total shots

Northern Ireland

Northern Ireland

Slovakia

11

7

Possession

Slovakia

Northern Ireland

Slovakia

38%

62%

Model edge

1

Betsson

Market odd

2.72

Fair odd

2.59

Edge

5.0%

Stake

0.67u

That ticket matched the final outcome.