Postmatch editorial

Neither side managed to pull the match clear

The final score was North Macedonia 1-1 Kazakhstan. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.

The late equaliser came from Enis Bardhi 74', which kept the game level at the finish.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: North Macedonia led Corners 7-2, even though the scoreboard went another way. North Macedonia also shaded Shots on target 6-4.

Before kickoff, our model made North Macedonia the likeliest result at 70.4%, while the median bookmaker line priced North Macedonia at 74.6% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (59.3%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Bet365. The market was offering 1.44 against a fair line of 1.41. That translated to an edge of 2.1% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

North Macedonia

70.4%

Miss

Market result

North Macedonia

74.6%

Miss

BTTS

No

59.3%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Corners

North Macedonia

North Macedonia

Kazakhstan

7

2

Shots on target

North Macedonia

North Macedonia

Kazakhstan

6

4

Possession

North Macedonia

North Macedonia

Kazakhstan

60%

40%

Model edge

1

Bet365

Market odd

1.44

Fair odd

1.41

Edge

2.1%

Stake

1.41u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.