Postmatch editorial

Draw found the margin in a finely priced match

The final score was Nigeria 1-1 Congo DR after extra time. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

Samuel Moutoussamy put the first mark on the match 2', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Congo DR led Shots on target 2-4, even though the scoreboard went another way. Congo DR also shaded Total shots 4-8.

Before kickoff, our model made Nigeria the likeliest result at 43.6%, while the median bookmaker line priced Nigeria at 46.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (60.4%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at 1xbet. The market was offering 4.72 against a fair line of 4.37. That translated to an edge of 8.0% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Nigeria

43.6%

Miss

Market result

Nigeria

46.5%

Miss

BTTS

No

60.4%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Congo DR

Nigeria

Congo DR

2

4

Total shots

Congo DR

Nigeria

Congo DR

4

8

Corners

Congo DR

Nigeria

Congo DR

2

6

Model edge

2

1xbet

Market odd

4.72

Fair odd

4.37

Edge

8.0%

Stake

0.44u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.