Nigeria
Nigeria won after full-time.
4 - 0
FT
Benin
Postmatch editorial
Nigeria made the numbers look right
The final score was Nigeria 4-0 Benin. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
The decisive turn arrived late when Frank Onyeka scored 90' for Nigeria.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Nigeria led Shots on target 4-2. Nigeria also shaded Possession 51%-49%.
Before kickoff, our model made Nigeria the likeliest result at 65.3%, while the median bookmaker line priced Nigeria at 71.4% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (67.2%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Nigeria
65.3%
Market result
Nigeria
71.4%
BTTS
No
67.2%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
NigeriaNigeria
Benin
4
2
Possession
NigeriaNigeria
Benin
51%
49%
Total shots
Nigeria
Benin
5
5
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.