Postmatch editorial

Niger flipped the prices on their head

The final score was Niger 2-1 Zambia. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.

Amadou Moutari put the first mark on the match 6', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Niger led Shots on target 3-1. Zambia also shaded Corners 0-6.

Before kickoff, our model made Zambia the likeliest result at 45.8%, while the median bookmaker line priced Zambia at 62.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (51.3%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Pncl. The market was offering 1.78 against a fair line of 1.73. That translated to an edge of 2.9% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Zambia

45.8%

Miss

Market result

Zambia

62.5%

Miss

BTTS

No

51.3%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Niger

Niger

Zambia

3

1

Corners

Zambia

Niger

Zambia

0

6

Total shots

Niger

Niger

Zambia

12

4

Model edge

2

Pncl

Market odd

1.78

Fair odd

1.73

Edge

2.9%

Stake

1.07u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.