Postmatch editorial

Morocco made the numbers look right

The final score was Niger 1-2 Morocco. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Niger struck first through Youssouf Oumarou 47', but Morocco recovered and flipped the match.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Morocco led Shots on target 2-5. Morocco also shaded Corners 0-7.

Before kickoff, our model made Morocco the likeliest result at 74.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced Morocco at 91.7% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (58.4%), and that angle missed.

Prediction checks

Model result

Morocco

74.0%

Hit

Market result

Morocco

91.7%

Hit

BTTS

No

58.4%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Morocco

Niger

Morocco

2

5

Corners

Morocco

Niger

Morocco

0

7

Total shots

Morocco

Niger

Morocco

6

14

Value angle

No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.