Postmatch editorial
The script held and Nicaragua delivered it
The final score was Nicaragua 4-1 Montserrat. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
The decisive turn arrived late when Harold Medina scored 90+3' for Nicaragua.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Nicaragua led Shots on target 7-2. Nicaragua also shaded Total shots 12-4.
Before kickoff, our model made Nicaragua the likeliest result at 76.5%, while the median bookmaker line priced Nicaragua at 90.9% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (59.5%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Dafabet. The market was offering 1.14 against a fair line of 1.13. That translated to an edge of 0.9% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
Nicaragua
76.5%
Market result
Nicaragua
90.9%
BTTS
No
59.5%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
NicaraguaNicaragua
Montserrat
7
2
Total shots
NicaraguaNicaragua
Montserrat
12
4
Possession
NicaraguaNicaragua
Montserrat
70%
30%
Model edge
1
Dafabet
Market odd
1.14
Fair odd
1.13
Edge
0.9%
Stake
2.82u
That ticket matched the final outcome.