Nicaragua
Nicaragua won after full-time.
2 - 0
FT
Honduras
Postmatch editorial
Nicaragua settled a divided pre-match read
The final score was Nicaragua 2-0 Honduras. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
The decisive turn arrived late when Jaime Moreno scored 82' for Nicaragua.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Honduras led Shots on target 3-5, even though the scoreboard went another way. Honduras also shaded Possession 37%-63%.
Before kickoff, our model made Nicaragua the likeliest result at 40.9%, while the median bookmaker line priced Honduras at 68.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (53.8%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Nicaragua
40.9%
Market result
Honduras
68.5%
BTTS
Yes
53.8%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
HondurasNicaragua
Honduras
3
5
Possession
HondurasNicaragua
Honduras
37%
63%
Corners
HondurasNicaragua
Honduras
5
10
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.