Postmatch editorial

Haiti turned the pre-match edge into points

The final score was Nicaragua 0-3 Haiti. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

The decisive turn arrived late when Louicius Deedson scored 90+2' for Haiti.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Haiti led Shots on target 3-6. Nicaragua also shaded Total shots 13-10.

Before kickoff, our model made Haiti the likeliest result at 42.2%, while the median bookmaker line priced Haiti at 50.3% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (55.6%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at 188bet. The market was offering 2.25 against a fair line of 2.16. That translated to an edge of 4.2% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Haiti

42.2%

Hit

Market result

Haiti

50.3%

Hit

BTTS

Yes

55.6%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Haiti

Nicaragua

Haiti

3

6

Total shots

Nicaragua

Nicaragua

Haiti

13

10

Possession

Nicaragua

Nicaragua

Haiti

56%

44%

Model edge

2

188bet

Market odd

2.25

Fair odd

2.16

Edge

4.2%

Stake

0.81u

That ticket matched the final outcome.