Postmatch editorial

Nicaragua turned the pre-match edge into points

The final score was Nicaragua 1-0 Guyana. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Jaime Moreno put the first mark on the match 41', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Nicaragua led Total shots 25-13. Nicaragua also shaded Corners 6-3.

Before kickoff, our model made Nicaragua the likeliest result at 66.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced Nicaragua at 73.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (59.5%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 10bet. The market was offering 1.45 against a fair line of 1.42. That translated to an edge of 2.1% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Nicaragua

66.0%

Hit

Market result

Nicaragua

73.5%

Hit

BTTS

Yes

59.5%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Total shots

Nicaragua

Nicaragua

Guyana

25

13

Corners

Nicaragua

Nicaragua

Guyana

6

3

Shots on target

Nicaragua

Nicaragua

Guyana

4

3

Model edge

1

10bet

Market odd

1.45

Fair odd

1.42

Edge

2.1%

Stake

1.39u

That ticket matched the final outcome.