Postmatch editorial

The prices said close and the pitch agreed

The final score was Nicaragua 1-1 Costa Rica. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.

The late equaliser came from Byron Bonilla 81', which kept the game level at the finish.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Costa Rica led Possession 41%-59%, even though the scoreboard went another way. Costa Rica also shaded Corners 4-6.

Before kickoff, our model made Nicaragua the likeliest result at 48.5%, while the median bookmaker line priced Costa Rica at 67.1% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (50.6%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at 188bet. The market was offering 1.70 against a fair line of 1.66. That translated to an edge of 2.4% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Nicaragua

48.5%

Miss

Market result

Costa Rica

67.1%

Miss

BTTS

No

50.6%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Possession

Costa Rica

Nicaragua

Costa Rica

41%

59%

Corners

Costa Rica

Nicaragua

Costa Rica

4

6

Total shots

Costa Rica

Nicaragua

Costa Rica

9

11

Model edge

2

188bet

Market odd

1.70

Fair odd

1.66

Edge

2.4%

Stake

1.18u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.