Postmatch editorial
The script held and Nicaragua delivered it
The final score was Nicaragua 3-0 Belize. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
Richard RodrÃguez put the first mark on the match 25', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Nicaragua led Shots on target 12-0. Nicaragua also shaded Possession 61%-39%.
Before kickoff, our model made Nicaragua the likeliest result at 41.3%, while the median bookmaker line priced Nicaragua at 90.9% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (61.2%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Dafabet. The market was offering 1.12 against a fair line of 1.11. That translated to an edge of 0.9% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
Nicaragua
41.3%
Market result
Nicaragua
90.9%
BTTS
Yes
61.2%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
NicaraguaNicaragua
Belize
12
0
Possession
NicaraguaNicaragua
Belize
61%
39%
Corners
NicaraguaNicaragua
Belize
5
3
Model edge
1
Dafabet
Market odd
1.12
Fair odd
1.11
Edge
0.9%
Stake
3.17u
That ticket matched the final outcome.