Newcastle United
Sunderland won after full-time.
1 - 2
FT
Sunderland
Postmatch editorial
Sunderland flipped the prices on their head
The final score was Newcastle United 1-2 Sunderland. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
Newcastle United struck first through Anthony Gordon 10', but Sunderland recovered and flipped the match.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Sunderland led Shots on target 4-7. Newcastle United also shaded Corners 9-5.
Before kickoff, our model made Newcastle United the likeliest result at 49.6%, while the median bookmaker line priced Newcastle United at 64.1% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (51.0%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Mansionbet. The market was offering 1.68 against a fair line of 1.64. That translated to an edge of 2.4% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Model result
Newcastle United
49.6%
Market result
Newcastle United
64.1%
BTTS
Yes
51.0%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
SunderlandNewcastle United
Sunderland
4
7
Corners
Newcastle UnitedNewcastle United
Sunderland
9
5
Possession
Newcastle UnitedNewcastle United
Sunderland
60%
40%
Model edge
1
Mansionbet
Market odd
1.68
Fair odd
1.64
Edge
2.4%
Stake
1.12u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.