Newcastle United
Newcastle United won after full-time.
2 - 1
FT
Manchester United
Postmatch editorial
Newcastle United found the margin in a finely priced match
The final score was Newcastle United 2-1 Manchester United. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
The decisive turn arrived late when William Osula scored 90' for Newcastle United.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Manchester United led Corners 2-4, even though the scoreboard went another way. Manchester United also shaded Possession 45%-55%.
Before kickoff, our model made Manchester United the likeliest result at 38.1%, while the median bookmaker line priced Manchester United at 39.8% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (56.6%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Manchester United
38.1%
Market result
Manchester United
39.8%
BTTS
Yes
56.6%
Key stats
Match numbers
Corners
Manchester UnitedNewcastle United
Manchester United
2
4
Possession
Manchester UnitedNewcastle United
Manchester United
45%
55%
Total shots
Manchester UnitedNewcastle United
Manchester United
12
14
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.