Newcastle United
Everton won after full-time.
2 - 3
FT
Everton
Postmatch editorial
Everton bent the night away from the script
The final score was Newcastle United 2-3 Everton. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
The decisive turn arrived late when Thierno Barry scored 83' for Everton.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Newcastle United led Corners 7-2, even though the scoreboard went another way. Newcastle United also shaded Total shots 17-9.
Before kickoff, our model made Newcastle United the likeliest result at 53.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced Newcastle United at 55.4% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (55.7%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Newcastle United
53.0%
Market result
Newcastle United
55.4%
BTTS
Yes
55.7%
Key stats
Match numbers
Corners
Newcastle UnitedNewcastle United
Everton
7
2
Total shots
Newcastle UnitedNewcastle United
Everton
17
9
Possession
Newcastle UnitedNewcastle United
Everton
66%
34%
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.