Newcastle United
Newcastle United won after full-time.
3 - 1
FT
Brighton & Hove Albion
Postmatch editorial
Newcastle United flipped the prices on their head
The final score was Newcastle United 3-1 Brighton & Hove Albion. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
The decisive turn arrived late when Harvey Barnes scored 90+5' for Newcastle United.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Brighton & Hove Albion led Corners 2-10, even though the scoreboard went another way. Brighton & Hove Albion also shaded Possession 32%-68%.
Before kickoff, our model made Brighton & Hove Albion the likeliest result at 43.4%, while the median bookmaker line priced Brighton & Hove Albion at 40.8% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (58.3%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Brighton & Hove Albion
43.4%
Market result
Brighton & Hove Albion
40.8%
BTTS
Yes
58.3%
Key stats
Match numbers
Corners
Brighton & Hove AlbionNewcastle United
Brighton & Hove Albion
2
10
Possession
Brighton & Hove AlbionNewcastle United
Brighton & Hove Albion
32%
68%
Shots on target
Newcastle UnitedNewcastle United
Brighton & Hove Albion
6
4
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.