Newcastle United
AFC Bournemouth won after full-time.
1 - 2
FT
AFC Bournemouth
Postmatch editorial
AFC Bournemouth bent the night away from the script
The final score was Newcastle United 1-2 AFC Bournemouth. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
The decisive turn arrived late when Adrien Truffert scored 85' for AFC Bournemouth.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: AFC Bournemouth led Corners 2-3. Newcastle United also shaded Possession 54%-46%.
Before kickoff, our model made Newcastle United the likeliest result at 41.8%, while the median bookmaker line priced Newcastle United at 45.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (59.1%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Newcastle United
41.8%
Market result
Newcastle United
45.5%
BTTS
Yes
59.1%
Key stats
Match numbers
Corners
AFC BournemouthNewcastle United
AFC Bournemouth
2
3
Possession
Newcastle UnitedNewcastle United
AFC Bournemouth
54%
46%
Shots on target
Newcastle United
AFC Bournemouth
3
3
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.