New Zealand
New Zealand won after full-time.
1 - 0
FT
Tahiti
Postmatch editorial
The script held and New Zealand delivered it
The final score was New Zealand 1-0 Tahiti. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
Liberato Cacace put the first mark on the match 70', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
Before kickoff, our model made New Zealand the likeliest result at 52.7%, while the median bookmaker line priced New Zealand at 93.9% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (60.5%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Tipico. The market was offering 1.15 against a fair line of 1.14. That translated to an edge of 0.9% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
New Zealand
52.7%
Market result
New Zealand
93.9%
BTTS
Yes
60.5%
Key stats
Match numbers
No reliable match statistics were returned for this game.
Model edge
1
Tipico
Market odd
1.15
Fair odd
1.14
Edge
0.9%
Stake
3.15u
That ticket matched the final outcome.