New Zealand
Oman won after full-time.
7 - 0
FT
Fiji
Postmatch editorial
The script held and New Zealand delivered it
The final score was New Zealand 7-0 Fiji. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
Chris Wood put the first mark on the match 6', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: New Zealand led Shots on target 10-1. New Zealand also shaded Total shots 22-4.
Before kickoff, our model made New Zealand the likeliest result at 65.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced New Zealand at 98.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (52.4%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Dafabet. The market was offering 1.06 against a fair line of 1.06. That translated to an edge of 0.0% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
New Zealand
65.0%
Market result
New Zealand
98.0%
BTTS
No
52.4%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
New ZealandNew Zealand
Fiji
10
1
Total shots
New ZealandNew Zealand
Fiji
22
4
Corners
New ZealandNew Zealand
Fiji
6
0
Model edge
1
Dafabet
Market odd
1.06
Fair odd
1.06
Edge
0.0%
Stake
5.00u
That ticket matched the final outcome.