New Caledonia
New Caledonia won after full-time.
3 - 0
FT
Tahiti
Postmatch editorial
New Caledonia made the numbers look right
The final score was New Caledonia 3-0 Tahiti. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
The decisive turn arrived late when Lues Waya scored 90+1' for New Caledonia.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: New Caledonia led Corners 1-0. New Caledonia also shaded Total shots 20-9.
Before kickoff, our model made New Caledonia the likeliest result at 55.8%, while the median bookmaker line priced New Caledonia at 62.1% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (52.3%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 1xbet. The market was offering 1.71 against a fair line of 1.66. That translated to an edge of 3.0% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
New Caledonia
55.8%
Market result
New Caledonia
62.1%
BTTS
Yes
52.3%
Key stats
Match numbers
Corners
New CaledoniaNew Caledonia
Tahiti
1
0
Total shots
New CaledoniaNew Caledonia
Tahiti
20
9
Shots on target
New CaledoniaNew Caledonia
Tahiti
5
4
Model edge
1
1xbet
Market odd
1.71
Fair odd
1.66
Edge
3.0%
Stake
1.08u
That ticket matched the final outcome.