New Caledonia
New Caledonia won after full-time.
3 - 1
FT
Papua New Guinea
Postmatch editorial
The script held and New Caledonia delivered it
The final score was New Caledonia 3-1 Papua New Guinea. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
The decisive turn arrived late when Germain Haewegene scored 83' for New Caledonia.
Before kickoff, our model made New Caledonia the likeliest result at 69.9%, while the median bookmaker line priced New Caledonia at 58.3% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (54.4%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Dafabet. The market was offering 1.84 against a fair line of 1.78. That translated to an edge of 3.4% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
New Caledonia
69.9%
Market result
New Caledonia
58.3%
BTTS
No
54.4%
Key stats
Match numbers
No reliable match statistics were returned for this game.
Model edge
1
Dafabet
Market odd
1.84
Fair odd
1.78
Edge
3.4%
Stake
0.99u
That ticket matched the final outcome.