New Caledonia
New Zealand won after full-time.
0 - 3
FT
New Zealand
Postmatch editorial
New Zealand turned the pre-match edge into points
The final score was New Caledonia 0-3 New Zealand. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
The decisive turn arrived late when Elijah Just scored 80' for New Zealand.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: New Zealand led Shots on target 0-7. New Zealand also shaded Possession 0%-100%.
Before kickoff, our model made New Zealand the likeliest result at 45.4%, while the median bookmaker line priced New Zealand at 98.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (58.0%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
New Zealand
45.4%
Market result
New Zealand
98.5%
BTTS
Yes
58.0%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
New ZealandNew Caledonia
New Zealand
0
7
Possession
New ZealandNew Caledonia
New Zealand
0%
100%
Total shots
New ZealandNew Caledonia
New Zealand
3
12
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.