Postmatch editorial

Jamaica found the margin in a finely priced match

The final score was New Caledonia 0-1 Jamaica. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

Bailey Cadamarteri put the first mark on the match 18', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Jamaica led Shots on target 1-4. Jamaica also shaded Total shots 5-12.

Before kickoff, our model made No clear call the likeliest result at n/a, while the median bookmaker line priced Jamaica at 96.2% implied.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Bwin. The market was offering 1.13 against a fair line of 1.12. That translated to an edge of 0.9% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Market result

Jamaica

96.2%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Jamaica

New Caledonia

Jamaica

1

4

Total shots

Jamaica

New Caledonia

Jamaica

5

12

Corners

Jamaica

New Caledonia

Jamaica

2

5

Model edge

2

Bwin

Market odd

1.13

Fair odd

1.12

Edge

0.9%

Stake

4.21u

That ticket matched the final outcome.