Netherlands
Netherlands won after full-time.
3 - 1
FT
United States
Postmatch editorial
The script held and Netherlands delivered it
The final score was Netherlands 3-1 United States. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
The decisive turn arrived late when Denzel Dumfries scored 81' for Netherlands.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: United States led Total shots 11-17, even though the scoreboard went another way. United States also shaded Shots on target 6-8.
Before kickoff, our model made Netherlands the likeliest result at 53.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced Netherlands at 51.8% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (54.4%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on X at Sbo. The market was offering 5.80 against a fair line of 5.31. That translated to an edge of 9.2% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Model result
Netherlands
53.0%
Market result
Netherlands
51.8%
BTTS
No
54.4%
Key stats
Match numbers
Total shots
United StatesNetherlands
United States
11
17
Shots on target
United StatesNetherlands
United States
6
8
Possession
United StatesNetherlands
United States
42%
58%
Model edge
X
Sbo
Market odd
5.80
Fair odd
5.31
Edge
9.2%
Stake
0.51u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.