Postmatch editorial

The prices said close and the pitch agreed

The final score was Netherlands 1-1 Poland. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.

The late equaliser came from Matty Cash 80', which kept the game level at the finish.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Netherlands led Shots on target 5-2, even though the scoreboard went another way. Netherlands also shaded Possession 74%-26%.

Before kickoff, our model made Netherlands the likeliest result at 70.4%, while the median bookmaker line priced Netherlands at 78.7% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (57.8%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 1xbet. The market was offering 2.90 against a fair line of 2.75. That translated to an edge of 5.5% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Netherlands

70.4%

Miss

Market result

Netherlands

78.7%

Miss

BTTS

No

57.8%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Netherlands

Netherlands

Poland

5

2

Possession

Netherlands

Netherlands

Poland

74%

26%

Total shots

Netherlands

Netherlands

Poland

14

6

Model edge

1

1xbet

Market odd

2.90

Fair odd

2.75

Edge

5.5%

Stake

1.47u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.