Netherlands
Netherlands won after full-time.
4 - 0
FT
Finland
Postmatch editorial
The script held and Netherlands delivered it
The final score was Netherlands 4-0 Finland. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
The decisive turn arrived late when Cody Gakpo scored 84' for Netherlands.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Netherlands led Corners 12-1. Netherlands also shaded Shots on target 6-3.
Before kickoff, our model made Netherlands the likeliest result at 76.3%, while the median bookmaker line priced Netherlands at 90.9% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (62.2%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 1xbet. The market was offering 2.07 against a fair line of 2.00. That translated to an edge of 3.5% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
Netherlands
76.3%
Market result
Netherlands
90.9%
BTTS
No
62.2%
Key stats
Match numbers
Corners
NetherlandsNetherlands
Finland
12
1
Shots on target
NetherlandsNetherlands
Finland
6
3
Total shots
NetherlandsNetherlands
Finland
17
7
Model edge
1
1xbet
Market odd
2.07
Fair odd
2.00
Edge
3.5%
Stake
2.10u
That ticket matched the final outcome.