Postmatch editorial

Navalcarnero upset the pre-match prices

The final score was Navalcarnero 1-0 Las Palmas. It landed away from the bookmaker favourite and counts as a genuine market upset.

The decisive turn arrived late when Vavá Guerreiro scored 90' for Navalcarnero.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Las Palmas led Shots on target 1-4, even though the scoreboard went another way. Las Palmas also shaded Possession 43%-57%.

Before kickoff, the median bookmaker prices made Las Palmas the favourite at 45.5% implied probability. That market lean missed.

Market check

Market result

Las Palmas

45.5%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Las Palmas

Navalcarnero

Las Palmas

1

4

Possession

Las Palmas

Navalcarnero

Las Palmas

43%

57%

Corners

Las Palmas

Navalcarnero

Las Palmas

4

5