Napoli
Game ended in draw.
2 - 2
FT
Roma
Postmatch editorial
Draw settled a divided pre-match read
The final score was Napoli 2-2 Roma. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
The late equaliser came from Alisson Santos 82', which kept the game level at the finish.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Napoli led Shots on target 7-2, even though the scoreboard went another way. Napoli also shaded Corners 2-1.
Before kickoff, our model made Napoli the likeliest result at 38.6%, while the median bookmaker line priced Napoli at 40.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (51.2%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Napoli
38.6%
Market result
Napoli
40.0%
BTTS
No
51.2%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
NapoliNapoli
Roma
7
2
Corners
NapoliNapoli
Roma
2
1
Possession
NapoliNapoli
Roma
61%
39%
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.