Postmatch editorial

Lazio flipped the prices on their head

The final score was Napoli 0-2 Lazio. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.

Matteo Cancellieri put the first mark on the match 6', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Lazio led Shots on target 0-7. Napoli also shaded Corners 12-0.

Before kickoff, our model made Napoli the likeliest result at 55.3%, while the median bookmaker line priced Napoli at 64.7% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (58.5%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 188bet. The market was offering 1.65 against a fair line of 1.61. That translated to an edge of 2.5% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Napoli

55.3%

Miss

Market result

Napoli

64.7%

Miss

BTTS

No

58.5%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Lazio

Napoli

Lazio

0

7

Corners

Napoli

Napoli

Lazio

12

0

Possession

Napoli

Napoli

Lazio

67%

33%

Model edge

1

188bet

Market odd

1.65

Fair odd

1.61

Edge

2.5%

Stake

1.18u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.