Postmatch editorial
Napoli made the numbers look right
The final score was Napoli 2-1 Fiorentina. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
Antonio Vergara put the first mark on the match 11', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Napoli led Total shots 19-15. Napoli also shaded Shots on target 6-5.
Before kickoff, our model made Napoli the likeliest result at 51.1%, while the median bookmaker line priced Napoli at 51.9% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (52.4%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 1xbet. The market was offering 2.12 against a fair line of 2.04. That translated to an edge of 3.9% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
Napoli
51.1%
Market result
Napoli
51.9%
BTTS
No
52.4%
Key stats
Match numbers
Total shots
NapoliNapoli
Fiorentina
19
15
Shots on target
NapoliNapoli
Fiorentina
6
5
Possession
NapoliNapoli
Fiorentina
53%
47%
Model edge
1
1xbet
Market odd
2.12
Fair odd
2.04
Edge
3.9%
Stake
0.85u
That ticket matched the final outcome.