Napoli
Bologna won after full-time.
2 - 3
FT
Bologna
Postmatch editorial
Bologna flipped the prices on their head
The final score was Napoli 2-3 Bologna. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
The decisive turn arrived late when Jonathan Rowe scored 90+1' for Bologna.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Napoli led Corners 7-1, even though the scoreboard went another way. Napoli also shaded Total shots 14-10.
Before kickoff, our model made Napoli the likeliest result at 55.4%, while the median bookmaker line priced Napoli at 64.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (52.7%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Napoli
55.4%
Market result
Napoli
64.5%
BTTS
Yes
52.7%
Key stats
Match numbers
Corners
NapoliNapoli
Bologna
7
1
Total shots
NapoliNapoli
Bologna
14
10
Shots on target
NapoliNapoli
Bologna
5
4
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.