Postmatch editorial

The scoreboard moved against the pre-match lean

The final score was Nantes 3-0 Olympique Marseille. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.

Ignatius Ganago put the first mark on the match 50', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Olympique Marseille led Shots on target 6-8, even though the scoreboard went another way. Olympique Marseille also shaded Possession 42%-58%.

Before kickoff, our model made Olympique Marseille the likeliest result at 54.6%, while the median bookmaker line priced Olympique Marseille at 52.4% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (59.8%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Cloudbet. The market was offering 5.16 against a fair line of 4.75. That translated to an edge of 8.6% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Olympique Marseille

54.6%

Miss

Market result

Olympique Marseille

52.4%

Miss

BTTS

Yes

59.8%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Olympique Marseille

Nantes

Olympique Marseille

6

8

Possession

Olympique Marseille

Nantes

Olympique Marseille

42%

58%

Corners

Olympique Marseille

Nantes

Olympique Marseille

7

8

Model edge

1

Cloudbet

Market odd

5.16

Fair odd

4.75

Edge

8.6%

Stake

0.43u

That ticket matched the final outcome.