Postmatch editorial

The scoreboard moved against the pre-match lean

The final score was Namibia 1-2 Malawi. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.

Richard Mbulu put the first mark on the match 5', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Malawi led Shots on target 0-2. Malawi also shaded Total shots 0-3.

Before kickoff, our model made Namibia the likeliest result at 53.5%, while the median bookmaker line priced Namibia at 44.4% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (62.8%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Bwin. The market was offering 2.40 against a fair line of 2.30. That translated to an edge of 4.3% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Namibia

53.5%

Miss

Market result

Namibia

44.4%

Miss

BTTS

No

62.8%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Malawi

Namibia

Malawi

0

2

Total shots

Malawi

Namibia

Malawi

0

3

Possession

Namibia

Namibia

Malawi

59%

41%

Model edge

1

Bwin

Market odd

2.40

Fair odd

2.30

Edge

4.3%

Stake

0.75u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.