Postmatch editorial
Estrela Amadora flipped the prices on their head
The final score was Nacional 2-3 Estrela Amadora. It landed away from the bookmaker favourite and counts as a genuine market upset.
Nacional struck first through Wesley Gasolina 3', but Estrela Amadora recovered and flipped the match.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Estrela Amadora led Total shots 10-15. Nacional also shaded Shots on target 5-4.
Before kickoff, the median bookmaker prices made Nacional the favourite at 42.3% implied probability. That market lean missed.
Market check
Market result
Nacional
42.3%
Key stats
Match numbers
Total shots
Estrela AmadoraNacional
Estrela Amadora
10
15
Shots on target
NacionalNacional
Estrela Amadora
5
4
Corners
NacionalNacional
Estrela Amadora
4
3