Postmatch editorial

Estrela Amadora flipped the prices on their head

The final score was Nacional 2-3 Estrela Amadora. It landed away from the bookmaker favourite and counts as a genuine market upset.

Nacional struck first through Wesley Gasolina 3', but Estrela Amadora recovered and flipped the match.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Estrela Amadora led Total shots 10-15. Nacional also shaded Shots on target 5-4.

Before kickoff, the median bookmaker prices made Nacional the favourite at 42.3% implied probability. That market lean missed.

Market check

Market result

Nacional

42.3%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Total shots

Estrela Amadora

Nacional

Estrela Amadora

10

15

Shots on target

Nacional

Nacional

Estrela Amadora

5

4

Corners

Nacional

Nacional

Estrela Amadora

4

3