Postmatch editorial
Nacional flipped the prices on their head
The final score was Nacional 2-0 Estoril. It landed away from the bookmaker favourite and counts as a genuine market upset.
The decisive turn arrived late when Léo Santos scored 77' for Nacional.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Nacional led Total shots 20-9. Estoril also shaded Shots on target 3-5.
Before kickoff, the median bookmaker prices made Estoril the favourite at 42.0% implied probability. That market lean missed.
Market check
Market result
Estoril
42.0%
Key stats
Match numbers
Total shots
NacionalNacional
Estoril
20
9
Shots on target
EstorilNacional
Estoril
3
5
Corners
NacionalNacional
Estoril
7
4