Postmatch editorial

The scoreboard moved against the market favourite

The final score was Nacional 1-2 AVS. It landed away from the bookmaker favourite and counts as a genuine market upset.

Nacional struck first through Filipe Soares 4', but AVS recovered and flipped the match.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Nacional led Shots on target 6-3, even though the scoreboard went another way. Nacional also shaded Possession 68%-32%.

Before kickoff, the median bookmaker prices made Nacional the favourite at 66.7% implied probability. That market lean missed.

Market check

Market result

Nacional

66.7%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Nacional

Nacional

AVS

6

3

Possession

Nacional

Nacional

AVS

68%

32%

Total shots

Nacional

Nacional

AVS

25

19