Mozambique
Mozambique won after full-time.
3 - 1
FT
Uganda
Postmatch editorial
Mozambique bent the night away from the script
The final score was Mozambique 3-1 Uganda. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
Pepo put the first mark on the match 3', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Mozambique led Total shots 3-1. Mozambique also shaded Shots on target 4-2.
Before kickoff, our model made Uganda the likeliest result at 40.6%, while the median bookmaker line priced Uganda at 37.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (52.9%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Marathonbet. The market was offering 3.10 against a fair line of 2.93. That translated to an edge of 5.8% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
Uganda
40.6%
Market result
Uganda
37.0%
BTTS
No
52.9%
Key stats
Match numbers
Total shots
MozambiqueMozambique
Uganda
3
1
Shots on target
MozambiqueMozambique
Uganda
4
2
Possession
MozambiqueMozambique
Uganda
74%
26%
Model edge
1
Marathonbet
Market odd
3.10
Fair odd
2.93
Edge
5.8%
Stake
0.60u
That ticket matched the final outcome.