Postmatch editorial

Mozambique turned the pre-match edge into points

The final score was Mozambique 2-1 Somalia. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Alfonso Amade put the first mark on the match 14', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Somalia led Shots on target 2-4, even though the scoreboard went another way. Mozambique also shaded Possession 60%-40%.

Before kickoff, our model made Mozambique the likeliest result at 65.6%, while the median bookmaker line priced Mozambique at 83.3% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (50.6%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Dafabet. The market was offering 1.25 against a fair line of 1.24. That translated to an edge of 0.8% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Mozambique

65.6%

Hit

Market result

Mozambique

83.3%

Hit

BTTS

No

50.6%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Somalia

Mozambique

Somalia

2

4

Possession

Mozambique

Mozambique

Somalia

60%

40%

Corners

Mozambique

Mozambique

Somalia

8

6

Model edge

1

Dafabet

Market odd

1.25

Fair odd

1.24

Edge

0.8%

Stake

1.95u

That ticket matched the final outcome.