Postmatch editorial

Guinea settled a divided pre-match read

The final score was Mozambique 1-2 Guinea. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

Abdoul Karim Traoré put the first mark on the match 2', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Guinea led Shots on target 1-2. Mozambique also shaded Corners 5-2.

Before kickoff, our model made Mozambique the likeliest result at 36.1%, while the median bookmaker line priced Mozambique at 39.7% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (52.3%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on X at Bet365. The market was offering 3.30 against a fair line of 3.11. That translated to an edge of 6.1% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Mozambique

36.1%

Miss

Market result

Mozambique

39.7%

Miss

BTTS

No

52.3%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Guinea

Mozambique

Guinea

1

2

Corners

Mozambique

Mozambique

Guinea

5

2

Total shots

Mozambique

Mozambique

Guinea

5

4

Model edge

X

Bet365

Market odd

3.30

Fair odd

3.11

Edge

6.1%

Stake

0.57u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.