Postmatch editorial

Mozambique turned the pre-match edge into points

The final score was Mozambique 2-0 Botswana. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Witiness Quembo put the first mark on the match 6', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Mozambique led Shots on target 4-1. Mozambique also shaded Total shots 8-6.

Before kickoff, our model made Mozambique the likeliest result at 52.8%, while the median bookmaker line priced Mozambique at 54.3% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (56.3%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Pncl. The market was offering 2.11 against a fair line of 2.03. That translated to an edge of 3.9% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Mozambique

52.8%

Hit

Market result

Mozambique

54.3%

Hit

BTTS

No

56.3%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Mozambique

Mozambique

Botswana

4

1

Total shots

Mozambique

Mozambique

Botswana

8

6

Possession

Botswana

Mozambique

Botswana

47%

53%

Model edge

1

Pncl

Market odd

2.11

Fair odd

2.03

Edge

3.9%

Stake

0.88u

That ticket matched the final outcome.