Postmatch editorial

Morocco made the numbers look right

The final score was Morocco 2-1 Zambia. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Hakim Ziyech put the first mark on the match 6', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Morocco led Shots on target 4-1. Morocco also shaded Total shots 19-6.

Before kickoff, our model made Morocco the likeliest result at 60.4%, while the median bookmaker line priced Morocco at 84.7% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (65.0%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 10bet. The market was offering 1.30 against a fair line of 1.28. That translated to an edge of 1.6% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Morocco

60.4%

Hit

Market result

Morocco

84.7%

Hit

BTTS

No

65.0%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Morocco

Morocco

Zambia

4

1

Total shots

Morocco

Morocco

Zambia

19

6

Corners

Morocco

Morocco

Zambia

5

2

Model edge

1

10bet

Market odd

1.30

Fair odd

1.28

Edge

1.6%

Stake

2.01u

That ticket matched the final outcome.