Postmatch editorial

Morocco made the numbers look right

The final score was Morocco 5-0 Niger. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

The decisive turn arrived late when Azzedine Ounahi scored 84' for Morocco.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Morocco led Shots on target 13-1. Morocco also shaded Total shots 24-2.

Before kickoff, our model made Morocco the likeliest result at 76.8%, while the median bookmaker line priced Morocco at 87.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (65.6%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 1xbet. The market was offering 1.23 against a fair line of 1.22. That translated to an edge of 0.8% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Morocco

76.8%

Hit

Market result

Morocco

87.0%

Hit

BTTS

No

65.6%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Morocco

Morocco

Niger

13

1

Total shots

Morocco

Morocco

Niger

24

2

Possession

Morocco

Morocco

Niger

73%

27%

Model edge

1

1xbet

Market odd

1.23

Fair odd

1.22

Edge

0.8%

Stake

2.06u

That ticket matched the final outcome.