Postmatch editorial

The scoreboard moved against the market favourite

The final score was Moreirense 3-2 Estrela Amadora. It landed away from the bookmaker favourite and counts as a genuine market upset.

Estrela Amadora struck first through Jovane Cabral 13', but Moreirense recovered and flipped the match.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Estrela Amadora led Corners 1-4, even though the scoreboard went another way. Moreirense also shaded Shots on target 5-3.

Before kickoff, the median bookmaker prices made Estrela Amadora the favourite at 40.5% implied probability. That market lean missed.

Market check

Market result

Estrela Amadora

40.5%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Corners

Estrela Amadora

Moreirense

Estrela Amadora

1

4

Shots on target

Moreirense

Moreirense

Estrela Amadora

5

3

Possession

Moreirense

Moreirense

Estrela Amadora

66%

34%