Postmatch editorial

One side of the split call landed for Montserrat

The final score was Montserrat 1-0 Belize. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

Mark Rogers put the first mark on the match 2', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Belize led Possession 29%-71%, even though the scoreboard went another way. Belize also shaded Corners 1-2.

Before kickoff, our model made Belize the likeliest result at 48.5%, while the median bookmaker line priced Montserrat at 43.7% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (60.9%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Pncl. The market was offering 2.50 against a fair line of 2.39. That translated to an edge of 4.6% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Belize

48.5%

Miss

Market result

Montserrat

43.7%

Hit

BTTS

Yes

60.9%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Possession

Belize

Montserrat

Belize

29%

71%

Corners

Belize

Montserrat

Belize

1

2

Shots on target

Belize

Montserrat

Belize

3

4

Model edge

1

Pncl

Market odd

2.50

Fair odd

2.39

Edge

4.6%

Stake

0.72u

That ticket matched the final outcome.