Postmatch editorial

The prices said close and the pitch agreed

The final score was Monaco 2-2 Auxerre. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.

Kévin Danois put the first mark on the match 11', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Monaco led Corners 11-3, even though the scoreboard went another way. Monaco also shaded Possession 69%-31%.

Before kickoff, our model made Monaco the likeliest result at 59.5%, while the median bookmaker line priced Monaco at 62.3% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (51.1%), and that angle missed.

Prediction checks

Model result

Monaco

59.5%

Miss

Market result

Monaco

62.3%

Miss

BTTS

No

51.1%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Corners

Monaco

Monaco

Auxerre

11

3

Possession

Monaco

Monaco

Auxerre

69%

31%

Total shots

Monaco

Monaco

Auxerre

15

12

Value angle

No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.